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dc.contributor.authorZhuang, QingYe
dc.contributor.authorWang, SuChun
dc.contributor.authorWu, MeiLi
dc.contributor.authorLui, Shuo
dc.contributor.authorJiang, WenMing
dc.contributor.authorHou, GuangYu
dc.contributor.authorLi, JinPing
dc.contributor.authorWang, KaiCheng
dc.contributor.authorChen, JiMing
dc.contributor.authorChen, JiWang
dc.date.accessioned2013-10-09T15:35:50Z
dc.date.available2013-10-09T15:35:50Z
dc.date.issued2013-09
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitationZhuang, Q. Y., Wang, S. C., Wu, M. L., Liu, S., Jiang, W. M., Hou, G. Y., Li, J. P., Wang, K. C., Yu, J. M., Chen, J. M. and Chen, J. W. Epidemiological and risk analysis of the H7N9 subtype influenza outbreak in China at its early stage. Chinese Science Bulletin. 2013. 58(26): 3183-3187. DOI: 10.1007/s11434-013-5880-5en_US
dc.identifier.issn1001-6538
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10027/10102
dc.descriptionThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits any use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and source are credited. © 2013 by SpringerOpen, Chinese Science Bulletinen_US
dc.description.abstractDozens of human cases infected with H7N9 subtype avian influenza virus (AIV) have been confirmed in China since March, 2013. Distribution data of sexes, ages, professions and regions of the cases were analyzed in this report. The results showed that the elderly cases, especially the male elderly, were significantly more than expected, which is different from human cases of H5N1 avian influenza and human cases of the pandemic H1N1 influenza. The outbreak was rated as a Grade III (severe) outbreak, and it would evolve into a Grade IV (very severe) outbreak soon, using a method reported previously. The H7N9 AIV will probably circulate in humans, birds and pigs for years. Moreover, with the driving force of natural selection, the virus will probably evolve into highly pathogenic AIV in birds, and into a deadly pandemic influenza virus in humans. Therefore, the H7N9 outbreak has been assumed severe, and it is likely to become very or extremely severe in the future, highlighting the emergent need of forceful scientific measures to eliminate any infected animal flocks. We also described two possible mild scenarios of the future evolution of the outbreak.en_US
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work was supported by the Sci-tech Basic Work Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology (SQ2012FY3260033).en_US
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.publisherSpringerOpenen_US
dc.titleEpidemiological and risk analysis of the H7N9 subtype influenza outbreak in China at its early stageen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US


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